How do you know if a video idea is worth pursuing? How can you measure it’s chance of success to reduce the risk of flop? In this blog post we cover…

• Why your video topic must align with your content

• Why bottlenecks and non-biased feedback matters

• How you can validate a YouTube topic using different metrics

• What these metrics are and why they work to measure a videos potential success

• Why outliers work to produce viral video

The First Step: Basics matters

The very first and simple step to validate a Youtube video topic, is to check if it fits with your channel offering.

Your channel offering is the type of videos you produce; does the video idea align with the general theme and style on your channel? If you produce videos about “Minecraft PVP”, a video about “Fortnite” should be out of the question.

You can even argue that you should stick to one strict video type on a channel. You can read more about this in this article. Below is a personal example from my channel where I deviated from my successful "Battle videos". Instead of sticking with battle videos, I started creating other types of content that had no competitive edge in the market.

If you are trying to build a consistent and loyal audience (and want to optimize for the recommendation algorithm), stick with one successful and strong video type!

This is very important, and yet, so many forget it. Most people fail at YouTube because they create too many audiences on the same channel. This creates inactive subs, and eventually, dead channels.

The second step is also a basic and it is all about execution.

The topic doesn't matter if you can’t deliver on YouTube essentials like video packaging (intro hook, title, thumbnail), storytelling and more. The essentials for a YouTube channel is listed here.

This must be in place, otherwise, you can't tell if your topic is your problem or whether it's linked to your execution of things. That's why you need to solve these issues first.

Always attempt to identify your weakest link (bottleneck), the most important area you need to improve upon in your production line.

If you struggle to identify your bottlenecks, get non-biased feedback from other YouTubers. This is especially useful if they have more experience than yourself. The more people you ask, the larger the data sample, and the higher the quality of the feedback (crowd wisdom). Advise can be dangerous, so make sure it all makes sense! In some cases, it makes more sense to listen to one's intuition.

How To Validate a YouTube Video Topic

In our last blog post, I wrote about how you can use outliers to identify video ideas with proven demand, and that these outliers can serve as inspiration to create your own viral videos.

To quickly recap; outliers are viral videos that perform exceptionally well compared to a channel’s average results. They are essentially viral videos and shows what is wanted from viewers on YouTube. It is a proven video concept that works and signals true demand from viewers. It shows what the YouTube algorithm wants.

But why is that? Why can we trust outliers? It all comes down to the following metrics:

• Supply and demand

• Momentum

• Narratives

Sounds complicated, eh? Let’s break it down simple and stupid.

Supply and demand

Let’s use a simple example of Minecraft videos to illustrate supply and demand on YouTube:

Supply = Minecraft videos being uploaded by Minecraft YouTubers

Demand = YouTube viewers watching and wanting Minecraft videos

Whenever there’s a larger demand from viewers than there is supply coming from Minecraft content creators, there’s an opportunity in the market for Minecraft YouTubers.

Let’s say the demand is 7 videos a week, but only 2 videos is uploaded. Then those 2 videos will likely gain lots of views because there is too few videos being uploaded to satisfy the demand.

On the contrary, if the demand is 7 videos a week, but Minecraft YouTubers upload 21 videos per week, some Minecraft YouTubers will not get a lot of views due to a crowded market.

The best way to measure supply and demand for a topic, is to look at the inflow of "non-subscriber viewers". By separating viewers from subscribers, we can more accurately determine the actual interest for the topic/niche/market by new viewers. If this calculation is negative it signals that demand for this topic is not present. If the average video has 10 000 excess views compared to the channel's subscribers, it tells you that on average, videos for this topic has an inflow of 10 000 new viewers.

This can be difficult to do, but here’s the step-by-step guide to do it.

1. Search for the topic you intend to make on YouTube (for example "history of middle-earth")

   
   

2. Find the videos most similar to the one you will make. This includes the videos that comes up first when searching for the topic, but you also the most recent videos this past month (use filter mechanism)

   
   

3. Now, look at views-to-subscribers ratio for the different videos, to see if video views is higher than the channel’s subscribers (channel views - channel subscribers)

   
   

4. If videos have significant more viewers than subscribers (giving positive ratios), there's currently a demand for the topic. On the other hand, if the ratios are negative, the demand might not be as strong

   
   

It’s important to emphasize that newer videos gives more accurate feedback on the current state of supply and demand, because it’s a fresher signal. YouTube viewers continually change what they view. The newer, the better.

Take the metric with a grain of salt, because there are exceptions. You might find negative ratios plus a brand new video that has a very good ratio. This could be an indication that the search is currently breaking out. Every search will be different, but you want some of the videos to have a positive views-to-subscribers ratio!

Important: note that supply and demand is just one metric, and is not alone sufficient to validate a video. That’s why momentum matters.

Momentum

While supply and demand gives us some signals for the short and medium-term, momentum gives us the best metric on a day-to-day basis, or hour-to-hour basis.

What is momentum? It can be measured using VPD (views-per-day) or ideally, using VPH (views-per-hour). If you have high views per hour on a video, it signals that there’s high demand for it right now as we speak. Pairing momentum with supply and demand gives us very useful information.

Momentum is incredibly important for videos, as the YouTube algorithm needs viewer data to recommend your video. Without any views this process becomes difficult. Low momentum will slow your views growth, and a excellent video may even stay hidden (especially if you have few subscribers to help you). The higher the momentum, the easier it is to grow your video views fast.

The caveat here, is that it doesn’t necessarily tell you exactly what it is about the video that there is a large demand for. That is why it matters to look at other metrics to make a complete analysis. That brings us to the next metric which is narratives.

Narratives

What about the video is viral? If we break down this outlier for example, let’s look at the narratives.

The context here is that KSI, Mr. Beast and Logan Paul together launched a new meal that is processed garbage. This has caused an uproar by fans, and this video takes on KSI’s response to his fans. The following “objects” likely causing demand can be identified:

-KSI (his name and status attracts demand)

-Lunchables (this is trending, attracts demand)

-Angry fans (this is trending, attracts demand)

-KSI’s terrible reaction (framed as a terrible reaction, the narrative)

The total demand for the video is a sum of these objects and the interest based around them. If we remove one of the objects, the video certainly loses some of its potential demand. If we just make a video about KSI, it certainly could get some views, but together with the current narratives they create a powerful cocktail that has a surge in demand.

Try to breakdown your video and look at all the different objects that might cause demand, as it might tell you what exactly there is a demand for. Perhaps you could even introduce new objects that is currently high in demand to craft an even more powerful mix?

Important: I will again remind you that the video should be in alignment with your channel’s offering.

Evergreen content

It's not only the short-term metrics that matter. If a video is evergreen, it means it continues to be relevant and provide views in the far future. The characteristics of evergreen videos:

• Addresses fundamental questions, problems, or interests that remain relevant

• The core value proposition doesn't diminish with time

• Often has a stable supply and demand (possibly over decades of time)

• Examples: "How to tie a tie" and "Basic cake recipe”

  

Evergreen videos are valuable because they continue to yield views 10 years into the future. This means if you consistently deliver high quality, you can expect incredible results years down the line because your videos continue to yield consistent results. Some topic ideas can deliver very high results in the short-term, but fails to provide any meaningful results over the long-term. Know what your strategy are, and the potential implications of your decisions. The best of both worlds is to use trends that are compatible with your channel offering and that still makes the content evergreen. I describe this in more detail in this article if interested.

Viewer feedback

The YouTube comment section is a gold-mine, because it is the only place where your audience directly tells you what they think, it's pure signal. If you are trying to validate a YouTube video idea, look at the comment section of similar videos. Here you could find some confirmation of your video topic or related objects and narratives. While there's often a lot of noise here, some comments can really provide valuable insights.

Solves a problem

A good video typically solves a problem for the viewer. This is because viewers often turn to YouTube to find solutions, learn something new, or be entertained in a way that meets a specific need. It can be in many different forms such as emotional support, entertainment, education, or practical problem-solving. Whether it’s offering a laugh to relieve stress, providing guidance through a difficult situation, teaching a new skill, or helping viewers make informed decisions, effective videos connect with audiences by addressing their needs.

How Viral Dashboard validates video topics

Viral Dashboard is a intelligent YouTube ecosystem that helps YouTubers validate video topics. By automatically calculating supply and demand and momentum, it's an excellent tool for identifying video topics that has potential. It saves hours of work over conventional methods, and makes it very intuitive by providing a market score.